要拯救核心的QTL业务，高通还有啥底牌

1月28日，在给出第二季度业绩指引以及曝出韩国移动巨头LG为其无线授权费而争论不下的消息后，高通股价大跌8%降到多年以来的新低。这对高通的QTL业务而言无疑是坏消息，一直以来这家公司依靠拥有的3G和4G专利，可以从每部出产的智能手机中提取总销售价格的3%~5%。

上个季度，QTL业务为高通产生了28%的GAAP营收，以及78%的税前收入。然而，年度营收降低12%，税前收入降低15%。让我们仔细分析下这些下降的原因，以及高通能否阻止高利润率业务的进一步下滑。

Shares of Qualcomm (NASDAQ:QCOM) slid 8% to a multi-year low on Jan. 28 after the company issued soft guidance for its second quarter and disclosed that South Korean mobile giant LG (NASDAQOTH:LGEAF) was disputing its wireless licensing fees. That's bad news for Qualcomm's QTL business, which owns 3G and 4G patents which allow it to take a 3% to 5% cut of the wholesale price of every smartphone shipped worldwide.

LG SNAPDRAGON-POWERED PHONES. SOURCE: QUALCOMM

Last quarter, the QTL business generated 28% of GAAP revenue and 78% of pre-tax earnings. However, revenue fell 12% annually, while pre-tax earnings declined 15%. Let's take a closer look at the reasons for those declines, and whether or not Qualcomm can stop the bleeding at its most profitable business.

The fundamental problems with QTL
When the smartphone market exploded after Apple launched the iPhone in 2007, few OEMs thought twice before paying Qualcomm its licensing fees. But as competition increased and the market became commoditized, margins plummeted among Android handset makers. Last year, Canaccord Genuity estimated that Apple's high-margin iPhones had swallowed up 94% of the entire smartphone industry's profits despite only controlling 14% of the market.

This means that Android leaders like Samsung (NASDAQOTH:SSNLF), Xiaomi, Huawei, and LG are desperately fighting off around a thousand other OEMs for a shrinking share of the remaining profits. The situation is dire -- last year, LG reported that it only made 1.2 cents in profit for each smartphone shipped. To beef up those margins, smartphone makers fought back against Qualcomm's license fees.

THE IPHONE IS SUCKING UP THE WORLD'S SMARTPHONE PROFITS. SOURCE: APPLE

Government regulators started to back their domestic smartphone makers. Last year, China fined Qualcomm $975 million for anticompetitive practices, and the company agreed to collect royalties based on only 65% of the net selling price of a handset, which was slightly lower than the wholesale price. But even after that ruling, many Chinese OEMs underreported shipments to pay Qualcomm lower licensing fees.

To make matters worse, regulators in South Korea and Taiwan launched similar probes into Qualcomm's licensing practices. If Qualcomm is forced to lower fees in those two markets, QTL revenue will take a big hit -- China, South Korea, and Taiwan generated 82% of its total sales in fiscal 2015.

Best and worst case scenarios
Qualcomm expects QTL revenue between $7.3 billion and $8.0 billion for fiscal 2016, which would represent an 8.1% decline to a 0.7% gain for the year. Qualcomm stated that the high end of the range assumes that it makes "meaningful progress" in signing new agreements with OEMs in China to resolve underreporting issues. The low end of the guidance assumes that the number of unreported devices in China will rise and that Qualcomm makes "little to no progress on signing new license agreements or amendments".

That guidance notably doesn't take into account the new dispute with LG. Qualcomm states that while the "claims are without merit", a resolution might not