The Wireless World in 2012: An Olympic Dream

Five years from now, what wireless technologies will we use? What services and entertainment will we access? And how do we get there from here? In this article, the authors address these questions by imagining a day at the 2012 Olympics.

By Alan Gatherer and Sandeep Kumar, Texas Instruments

The year is 2012, and you have the good fortune to be in London for the opening ceremonies of the Olympic Games. Some of your friends are along for the trip, too, because you've all been assigned the enjoyable task of checking out advanced wireless communications at the games.

In a digital world already dominated by advanced, innovative wireless equipment, this fictitious scenario forces us to imagine: What will you be able to do in the wireless world of 2012?

Today, in 2007, the great ambition of the wireless industry is to not only make the various types of voice, video and data applications available through all air interfaces, but also to make access transparent to the user. Essentially, all telephone calls, the Internet, TV and data services can be accessible for users to enjoy on their PC, mobile phone, PDA or any other wireless device that may eventually appear.

Though this convergence is not likely to be completed within the next five years, 2012 is a good checkpoint to gauge the direction and progress of tomorrow's wireless world. Wireless developments that are just beginning to appear today will be in full deployment by then. Technical issues that seem daunting right now will likely be resolved. Even more interesting to consider, are the changes in business models that will take place as channel bandwidths increase in scale, and more content providers have ready access to them.

The wireless technology for the early part of the next decade already exists, and we are familiar with its promises:

• Hundreds of kilobits to tens of megabits per second on cellphones, sufficient for extremely compressed low-definition TV broadcasts
• Up to hundreds of megabits per second for wireless LANs (WLANs), sufficient for highly compressed, high-definition TV
• Metropolitan-area networks (MANs) with bit rates approaching WLANs and coverage over several miles.

These numbers may sound impressive, but there are still significant issues that remain for seamless application convergence. Voice, data and broadcast networks are designed to address several different purposes, and it will take considerable alterations for each device to work together as compatible pieces of a larger mixed network.

Today, the various interactive networks compete rather than complement one another. Multiple, largely parallel wireless networks exist. These networks can be grouped into two categories:

• Voice-centric cellular, with circuit-switched delivery in real time
• Data-centric WLAN, with IP-based, best effort packet-switched delivery.

The most significant change in the overall wireless network in the next few years will be the merger of these into a single data network where the application-agnostic world of IP delivery will be tempered with a desire to support multiple applications, some of whom have no real time constraints and some who have significant real time constraints in a wireless environment. (Radio and TV broadcast networks are not interactive, though it is important to realize these traditional sources of digital content will continue to play a major role in shaping user demand, with different packaging).

You begin the day on your 4G cellphone/PDA by confirming the schedule of events, then activating your electronic tickets so you can use the express line at the security gate. While you've been "on hold" on your phone, waiting for confirmation, you've been on your PC checking the weather (a sunny day, of course) and looking for the least-congested route to Wembley Stadium. The satellite-tracked site you view gives 15-second traffic updates in any area of the city, and constantly updates its suggested route. Realizing that today you'll never get through all the traffic, you decide instead to hop the Tube (which you still want to call the subway).

Key to bringing about the convergence of voice and data is the implementation of IMS (IP Multimedia Subsystem), a standardized architecture to support IP-based applications in a standard way whatever the capabilities of the user terminals. Using a standard Internet Protocol called Session Initiation Protocol (SIP), IMS delivers a consistent network architectural view to the application, and allows it to negotiate with the user terminal to define how the data is to be transferred.

As this negotiation occurs at the start of every new user interaction, the application developer does not need to know the capabilities of the network or the user when developing the application program. For instance, the same email server can be installed on a cellular network as is used on a WLAN network, or even a wired cable modem network.
Different networks interoperate seamlessly with each other when supporting wireless applications and the user has a consistent experience with the application, regardless of which network he is on. For example, the user can check the weather on her home laptop, and then recheck, using her favorite weather application on her PDA at the game. This also makes it easier to develop and deploy applications quickly, driving the variety and relevance of the services available on the wireless networks.

While IMS offers the delivery framework for a merged network, there is still a need to work out some of the details, particularly when supporting real-time transmissions. Existing VoIP implementations tend to operate within defined boundaries, typically in an enterprise or subscriber network, where Quality of Service (QoS) mechanisms guarantee real-time delivery. In the open Internet, such mechanisms are supported sporadically or not at all, allowing latencies in packet delivery that tend to make voice calls and interactive video less than satisfactory. For the merged wireless network to work, QoS support will have to be extended over a wider coverage area.

QoS issues have been around since users began trying to stretch the Internet beyond its original data applications. What has changed however, is that wireless networks are now diverse enough to test the limitations of existing delivery mechanisms. The cellular legacy of voice means it will take some time to make the changeover. By 2012, cellular networks may not have merged all services, and handsets may have separate frequencies for voice and data. Eventually though, QoS and latency issues will be resolved for all wireless networks that operate within an IMS framework.

One basic tradeoff will be in system capacity. Cellular networks are designed to support voice very efficiently and VoIP will not perform as well on wireless. However, as voice becomes a smaller part of the total data bandwidth, and the capacity of wireless networks increases, voice will become just another application and it will be more convenient to support it in the all encompassing IP framework used for other applications. Network providers are also putting a lot of thought into how to support VoIP and the performance difference is shrinking.

Once inside the stadium, you have a variety of wireless access points available to enhance your enjoyment of the spectacle. The stadium network provides ongoing close-ups and replays, as well as several channels of events taking place at other sites in London's Olympic Park. All of these conveniences will prove invaluable during the competitive events in upcoming weeks. At any time, you can direct your attention to worldwide news or other programming that is broadcast on the Internet. And since every portable unit has a hard drive with huge capacity, you can record your favorite TV show for later viewing, while you watch a live event.

Both network topologies and delivery protocols will change. Some of today's wireless networks route data through a cluster of WLANs, in which user data enters a network that is flat, not hierarchical, and through which there may be several paths from the user to the internet access point. These flat, mesh networks, can form their own intranets with only a single, or at most a few, connections to the wide-area network and Internet.

Mesh networks are easier to deploy and extend because the topology is very flexible and often redundant. Traffic flow through the network is dealt with locally in an ad hoc manner, and hence congestion in a particular link, or even the loss of a particular link, does not necessarily bring the network down. Already being deployed by government, business and academia, in upcoming years mesh networks will continue to grow, and as they do, they will be used to support a wider range of applications for an array of organizations such as government municipalities, political activist groups and even large sporting events.

Nobody knows yet how WiMAX will fit into this network scenario, but there is no doubt it is coming. Perhaps it will be widely used for backhauling from mesh networks, especially when these are set up ad hoc for special events. Certainly WiMAX has a role to play in rural areas where it may be difficult to supply wired services. In cities, WiMAX may sit side-by-side with WLANs and mesh networks, providing an alternate access that can fill dead spots in reception, avoid transmission interference and perhaps offer different services.

Or instead of playing these supporting roles, WiMAX may take the lead. Why bother to set up your own WLAN when you can rely on something already deployed? All we can say today is that WiMAX and mesh networks will both be present in future topologies. Their functionality however could take many forms.

A similar outcome is true for cellular networks, which continue to grow and devise new ways to provide increased bandwidth to their subscribers. These networks are best-established over wide areas, and their voice services are indispensable to most customers, making it unlikely that their importance will diminish soon. Cellular networks have also, for the most part, solved the problem of supporting a massive network of users with coverage and decent QoS.
Future networks will require an even better level QoS, and demand solutions to trickier coverage problems with video gaming applications in higher frequency bands. Only cellular systems have proven themselves in this arena. Nevertheless, of all the connectivity options, cellular networks have the most progress to make in changing delivery mechanisms, and they will have to do so to remain competitive in the future.

You keep in constant touch with your companions via phone, at times augmenting the experience with video. All of you purposely sit in different sections of the stadium to see how much wireless communications can turn your separate experiences into a collective one. A few in the group have their children along, and the kids are playing a networked video game, though once in a while their parents commandeer the large game screens to look at close-ups from the ceremonies on-field.

The group is also creating its own Olympic Webcast, and two members are in a booth providing commentary and editing the low-resolution images you are all continually forwarding. In the days to come, you will all be reporting on different events from widely separated locations. You are part of the growing band of amateur webcasters, whose diverse commentaries on wide ranging topics has grown out of the text blogosphere into a video blogosphere. Sporting and music venues have struggled to control this new trend, but for the Olympics the organizers have decided to allow such behavior in the hopes it will actually encourage commercial viewing. It is certainly true that the video blogosphere has become a goldmine for network operators and equipment manufacturers.

Wireless handsets continue to evolve, and they will become even more personalized in the future. Some will be smaller, some will offer larger displays with higher resolutions and some will integrate video cameras and other specialized inputs. Miniaturized hard disk drives with capacities in the hundreds of gigabytes will provide TiVo-like features, and large buffer memories will help enhance picture quality by optimizing compression and smoothing latency jitter. Many of these devices will communicate with each other, making personal networking much easier.

These advances will be enabled by new generations of highly integrated digital signal processors (DSPs) and analog radio components, which continue to offer higher performance with lower power consumption at affordable costs. DSPs make it possible to compress, decompress and reformat highly encoded audio, video and voice data-all in real time. Technology advances such as digital radios minimize the power and space required for transmission and reception, making it possible to introduce wireless capabilities inexpensively in handsets with new form factors. Device techniques for power management continue to improve as well, helping to stretch the life of batteries between charges as long as possible.

Perhaps the most interesting change in the wireless network will be in who provides the content. As bandwidth increases and compression improves, more and more video will be transmitted. While a great deal of this digital content will come from the television and film industries, much of it will be delivered from more advanced sources. YouTube and similar streaming video Web sites have already shown the popularity of uploading personal videos, and the availability of real-time delivery will encourage personal broadcasts that appeal to specialized groups. Much of this digital content is very narrow in interest, but what seems trivial to some viewers may be vital to others, and there is always some content that pushes communications and entertainment in important new directions. Some of these new content providers are finding sponsorship from advertising or other sources, and they are forming the core of a new industry.

As content becomes increasingly diverse in its sources, the network providers may become more transparent as the source of services. Once any type of data can travel over any air link and any business can set up an IMS based service, it will become less obvious that network providers should also be the supplier of phone, Internet, and IPTV services.

Traditional carriers will continue to enhance their service offerings in order to retain subscribers but they will also let new service providers set up shop on their IMS networks to provide niche content. This is similar to how MVNOs are leasing network capacity and setting up niche cellular service. The carrier that can balance their own service provisioning while still letting outside service providers flourish on their networks will be the most successful.

By 2012, the business model for network services will be different from what it is today, just as the network topology and delivery framework will also change. Getting from today's individual digital equipment to tomorrow's converged communications devices will not require a technology revolution-just a steady evolution based on technology that already exists and is continually deployed. Eventually, all air interfaces will support all of the general voice, video and data applications. Range, bandwidth and available service offerings will make the difference as to which type of network works best for a specific use. The networks probably won't be fully merged by 2012, but they will be well on their way. One thing is certain about the wireless services available during the London Olympics: they will undoubtedly be more advanced than those available in Athens in 2004, and even from those that will be available in Beijing in 2008.

Your group has arranged to meet at the main entrance when the Olympics are over. How can you possibly find each other in the midst of such a crowd? A locater service on your phone, using a combination of the wireless network and GPS, amplifies voices as you approach each other, making the process much easier for you and your friends. Although interoperable locator services are offered by your cellular service providers, you choose to use the same sort of capabilities provided by the stadiums wireless mesh network free of charge because the stadium has found it actually saves them money in crowd control. Then you all head off for a crawl through the best Olympic kickoff parties going, researched (how else?) through the Web as you were watching the ceremonies. When tonight's fun is over, you have a lot more wireless research to do in upcoming weeks at the Olympic Park and all over London.