高通的真正威胁根本不是英特尔或三星

Qualcomm's intellectual property has been its engine from the get-go. They succeed by proving that property's value in chipsets. If Qualcomm's model cannot answer (exceed) that challenge repeatedly, then long-term investors have a problem.

Takeaways

To sum up:

If you're watching chipset "win" announcements for Qualcomm guidance, you're a short-term investor, and Qualcomm is not the stock for you.

If you're a long-term investor in Qualcomm, be very alert to intellectual property announcements, particularly indications within new products that there is competing IP.
The real threat to Qualcomm is the possible split of the licensing section from the chip design section.

If cooler heads prevail, I expect that Qualcomm will not face either being simply split up or remaining whole. Competing agendas will likely yield compromise, and that may be more or less beneficial depending on the structures proposed.

Still, nothing changes the fact that Qualcomm's durable advantage is its intellectual property and how they migrate that IP into chipsets. It's their raison d'etre, how they're built, who they are.

What Qualcomm has that its competitors lack is a better road map. The company has innovation stretching as far as the eye can see - the key for investors will be whether its management can protect the company's sustainable advantage through the tough road ahead.