英特尔：谁在唱衰我，看我2016年满血复活

因为PC市场对微控制器产品的需求较此前预期值下降更多，英特尔公司股价较去年同期下降了21.2%之多。对本年度，英特尔曾对投资者暗示，预计销售将较2014年下降1%，而该公司最近表示因为2015年PC部分表现不佳，预计销售下降的百分比将达到很高的个位数字。

而如果PC市场能够止跌，同时英特尔在数据中心业务上能够实现预期的强劲增长，那么该公司还是很有可能在2016年恢复增长的。

Shares of chip giant Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) have fallen a steep 21.2% year-to-date as demand for PCs using the company's microprocessors have proven more sluggish than previously anticipated. For the current year, Intel has signaled to investors that it expects sales to be down by 1% compared to 2014 levels as its non-PC business units mostly, but not completely, offset what the company says will now be a "high single-digit" decline in the total addressable market for PCs in 2015.

INTEL HAS SIGNIFICANTLY LAGGED THE ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF YEAR-TO-DATE. SOURCE: YCHARTS.

Is the bottom in for this chip giant's revenue base? As long as the PC declines get "less bad" and the company's data center group continues to deliver strong growth rates, then it would seem so.

PCs could stabilize, allowing its data center group to drive growth
This year is proving to be pretty difficult for the personal computer market, and the market probably isn't ever going to return to being a healthy growth market; even Intel CEO Brian Krzanich said at the company's annual stockholder meeting that the company is planning for PCs to be "flat to slightly down mid-single digits over the long term."

However, as long as Intel can minimize the declines (and perhaps eke out some years of modest growth now and again), the company's other major business -- its data center group -- should be able to carry the business to growth.

To illustrate this point, suppose that Intel's PC-related revenues will decline 8% from $34.67 billion in 2014 to $31.9 billion in 2015. Then assume that from that level, Intel sees another 5% PC-related revenue decline to $30.31 billion in 2016. This would mean that, to grow total 2016 sales from 2015 levels (which are admittedly expected to be a tad below the record revenue set in 2014), Intel would need to grow sales in its other businesses, in aggregate, by $1.6 billion.

According to Intel executives, the company's data center group is on track to grow at a 15% revenue compounded annual growth rate through 2018. This segment brought in $14.39 billion in sales for the company during 2014 and, if Intel's growth projection of 15%-or-better holds for the year, it should generate about $16.55 billion in revenue for 2015.

Piling on another 15% growth from that $16.55 billion level yields about $19.03 billion, or sales growth of $2.98 billion, more than offsetting a potential 5% decline in PC sales. In fact, if Intel can actually achieve 15% growth in its data center business in 2016, then the company may be able to withstand a nearly 10% drop in PC chip sales and still keep overall sales roughly flat.

Now, "roughly flat" is hardly a phrase one associates with a business that one should rush to pile his or her investment dollars into, but I do think that it throws some cold water on the notion that Intel is in any imminent danger.

With that being said, keep in mind that these are ballpark numbers, since we won't know both Intel's actual full-year 2015 numbers as well as the company's 2016 growth expectations until early next year.

What about Intel's other segments beyond the data center?
Although Intel executives play up the company's prospects in segments such as NAND flash and the Internet of Things, these businesses are fairly small portions of the company's overall revenue base.